Which Company Will Fall First? - Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, or Facebook?
12/08/18 from Curious Reason on YouTube
Facebook will be 1st to fall. Most developed countries have multiple options for social media. Facebook realizes this and has invested heavily in infrastructure in 3rd world countries and being the sole provider of Internet & Social Media. They will hang on in other countries, but most Americans have already walked away, most celebrities do not use Facebook, they prefer IG or Twitter, and Parler has become the #1 App at the time of publishing.
Facebook is considered invasive to privacy, and has been the subject of multiple Congressional & Parliamentary Hearings in US, Europe & abroad, as well as being a platform for political propaganda .Like Google, they rely on collecting, organizing & re-selling your data to advertising companies & Government sector. Any user move away from Facebook or related services, would end all of the user-database revenue. Facebook must maintain the facade that everyone needs to have Facebook, and that simply just is not true.
Apple will be 2nd to fall. 63% of Apple's revenue comes from IPhones. They rely on brand loyalty, trendy optics, and users upgrading to a new IPhone every year or two. 2 or 3 lackluster models could crush their brand, and other trendy, flashy options would prevail. As the world moves towards cheaper & stronger, Apple move towards expensive & outdated. They are not innovating their product as quickly as rivals, and price points are over $1,000. Huawei offers rival phones under $500, and Samsung & others like Android have Google's wide range to rely on, while ICloud, Itunes and other Apple Products are mostly exclusive to IPhones & MacBooks. There are 100 Million IPhone Users in US compared to 120 Android, and there are only 900 Million worldwide IPhone users compared to over double that with 2 Billion Android Users.
Alphabet (Google) will be 3rd to fall. Recent innovations like Google Glass did not go over as well as expected. Google relies on obtaining, organizing & re-selling user data, so without users supplying data for Google, their business will fail. Also like Facebook, they must maintain the illusion that Google is necessary and convenient to have all of your E-Mail, Work Documents, Legal Documents, Storage Cloud, Photo Services, Search Results, Map, GPS, Location etc all on one service, which is extremely invasive, and each service has many rivals, so they must maintain Top Status in all fields they operate in to maintain the illusion.
Personal Users will change habits before businesses do, but there are many rival options like MS One Drive & DropBox, or Yahoo Mail/Maps, or Bing/Yahoo/DuckDuckGo searches. Amazon, Apple & many independent options have better options for photo storage. YouTube is the most watched streaming service for user content in the world. However, Censorship & Banning Videos from receiving ad revenue due to video topics have led users to leave for other options like Bitchute & Rumble.
Google's strongest market is Android. Android is the Number one OS in the world for cellulars. As long as Android phones continue to offer competitive pricing & innovation to Apple IPhones, they will maintain this market. It also helps that most wireless services companies choose cheaper Androids over IPhone when offering free or discount phones to new members. Next is Google Search which controls 90% of search results in the world. Chances are whenever you use a search bar at any website, they are using Google SEO to find your result. The entire world would need to push for other popular search bars like MS Bing, Yahoo & DucDuckGo, to be used on other websites in place of Google.
Alternative SEOs would be required. This site you are reading this article on was made using WIX, which uses Google Search Engine Optimization to get my article into their search engines. Without using SEO, you couldn't search for this article, you could only find it through someone sharing the link or going to my site itself and scrolling through to find it.
Amazon will be the 4th to fall. They are the number one e-commerce company in the world, a quickly growing market which will be growing steadily as lockdowns increase. They have also started building brick-and-mortar popup stores worldwide. They have built a strong home delivery service & Logistics business with their own fleet of cars, trucks, planes & drones to rival UPS, FedEx, DHL & the USPS itself.
Their streaming service Prime Video rivals Netflix, Hulu & Disney+ and they have in-house production, and popular Amazon originals like The Handmaid's Tale, Man In The High Castle, etc. They will likely outlast Netflix, HBO & Hulu, especially by owning & creating their own content, and luring new & popular shows to Amazon & away from Network/Cable TV. They have the #1 Cloud in the world. They own Whole Foods and offer home delivery in most big cities in the US.
At the end of the day, Amazon can only last as long as people require its services. Some things required for Amazon to fall are rival e-commerce websites, B2B Clouds, Home Delivery Providers, Music libraries, Photo storages, lack of demand for streaming services, or any increase in brick-and-mortar shopping habits. Also 17% of Amazon's revenue comes from 3rd-party retailers. If a mass exodus of sellers left Amazon for other options like EBay, Wayfare, etc. or social-media garage sales, it would take a large chunk out of Amazon. However, operating capital is very high, and Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world, worth $182 Billion at publishing time.
Amazon will overreach their control and users will abandon them for less intrusive options. Governments may step in to protect users from data-collection & sales, as well as privacy concerns. Amazon controls the Washington Post, a top ranked newspaper since 1877, but it has fallen into the category of Fake News and routinely lobbies against anti-establishment activists like Donald Trump & the GOP who seek to limit Big Tech's reach & control.
MicroSoft will be the last to fall. There would need to be an entire overhaul of ALL Personal & Business Computing systems, moving to open-source options like LINUX, and non-Windows based computers like the Raspbery Pi. Not to mention, they have 90 Million loyal XBOX Users.
MicroSoft has already stood up to a Government Anti-Trust Trial, as well as having firewalls strong enough to keep even Chinese hackers out. They are well-leveraged as no one revenue stream makes up more than 25%. Windows, Surface, Office & XBOX make up less than half of MS total Revenue.
82% of Computers use MS Windows, which requires new upgrades & computers every couple years. A new XBOX is released every couple years, and a move away from physical gaming/movie discs has increased reliance on MS One Drive Storage Services. Their business tactics move for horizontal integration, and then outward to the general public once they are dependent on their services.
MicroSoft will most likely be the last to fall, and they control a large part of our society along with the other 4 Tech Giants who will likely fall before them. The fall of MicroSoft would truly be the end of Big Tech, unless ONE Organization became strong enough to knock out the other 4, or an independent knocked off all 5.
__________________
Further Analysis:
US & Europe cracking down on data-collection, violations of privacy and privatized sale of user information could lead to Facebook & Google losing their stranglehold over worldwide advertising revenue. The Courts could determine that if user-data is to be collected, that it be publicly shared with its users and shared equally with all companies, and not sold to the highest bidder. If users were allowed to opt-out of data collection & information sharing, the advertising industry would be forced to adapt to new strategies. If Facebook users declined, Third-Party advertisers may choose not to advertise on Facebook or on Google search results, opting for other options.
Amazon, Apple, MS & Google control the biggest Clouds in the world, mostly Business To Business (B2B) & Government Sector. If the government-limited data-collection, majority of the need for Clouds would vanish. Also, privacy concerns could move users to keep hard copies of their photos/videos/documents offline, rather than online where they are subject to hackers, and where you don't have to give the company permission to use your likeness as they see fit.
Other Tech Companies:
AT&T which owns Cricket, a cheaper rival to Verizon, T-Mobile,etc. and uses mostly Android phones. GameStop has built an empire on buying/selling used games back to users for a slight markdown. As MS Xbox, Sony PS & Nintendo Wii do away with physical discs, and move to digital media & cloud storage, there will be no physical games for GameStop to trade on, nor will their be DVDs & Blu-Rays. Unless GameStop merges into some type of cloud-based rental streaming service, their days are numbered. DirectTV & Satellite TV in general is a declining industry.
Comments